Posted 6:41 AM by Dil
19/12/2009
excessive credit growth
private sector rational decline
public credit growing

320% debt to GDP now
medicare/aid fre over 600% debt

one day, interest payments on gment balloon
35-50% of revenue

monetise, high inflation
distract attention, us will go to war
3-15 years, long term negative view

equities better place to hide than bonds

us vs china further apart than ever

indian ocean, leading to war

no solution to these wars

us doesn't produce enough

forex reservres up 7x in 15 years
70% held in asia
cb will buy gold
indian cb very well run

indian banks ok, big opportunities in new acounts

urbanisation will accerate
opps at the right time

hk developers did not go bust, 70% prices down
no leverage on family firms

crisis should clean system
huge opp for strong cos, more rd and cashflow / takeover

wheat, 200 year low
natural gas

us global share down a lot
car sales larger than g16 in dev countries

dev countr oil consumption higher than Gs

huge money behind warming
cannot tell you what the posn is

emerging econ continue to use
demand double in 20 years
20 to 40

eventually will have higher prices

1981 16%, 2008 bottom
yields will go up alot in 10 years

more inflation
too many

fiscal deficit balloon
q whether debts will be repayable

avoid us bonds
j stocks and banks, contrarian
economy won't do well
cos will do well