Doom and Gloom

Saturday, February 07, 2009


Bloomberg 6/2/2009

stimulus plan a disaster

maybe better solution, nationalise let bond holders lose out
market based solution, give junk bonds to bond, shareholders

close, cosy relationship between gment and wall st
wall st large contributor to gdp and elections

2.5% to 3.6% 30 year bonds US

no free lunch, someone hasto pay
gment doesn't let that happen

massive tax cuts would be better, to private sector

continuous intervention by the gment whcuih has brought about the problems

itel, oracle,cisco will outperform gment bonds over the next 5 years


Sunday, February 01, 2009


19/1/2009 cnbc
2009 or 20010 dhoe to drop in gment bond market

Japan as in 1981
South Korea, Taiwan 1987

quality commodity stocks

high volatility
widespread belief deflation will continue

agonies postponed
better to let adjustment go as quickly as possible

against bailout packages

physical gold, mining , exploration


29/12/2008 cnbc
precious metals, gold silver, plattinum, oil

if oil is at 25, will be terrible for world, -5-10 gdp for year

gold will outperform

2009 trade will be short treasuries

japan had v high savings
real estate, equities go into deflation
purchasing power j worker increased

US had net foreign assets
will lead to weaker dollar
against hard assets
industrial assets, close to 2001 lows

korea, 1988 level
japan cheap,
geopolitics difficult

BHP, Freeport,


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