Posted 8:27 AM by Dil
1 december 2008

have had largest asset deflation ever

asset markets
since 2001
2002-2007, all assets go up, global economic boom
2008, all collpases apart from US dollar

not going back to 1500 soon on SP

huge fiscal stimulus
will lead to huge rally in asset prices

2009 economies will deteriorate very badly


when dollar starts to weaken, flowing again into asset prices

central banks never surprise
will let bubbles occur
will destroy the whole global financial system sooner or later

maybe go to 950/1000 SP
high volatility, +/- 20%

Ni eg oversold now, 10k from 50k

a lot of cyclical industries will be hit very badly

Warren Buffett approach has been dead for 10 years, will be for another 10 years

play in small amounts for investors


equities will not increase much for a long time

but Commodoties, not through a 25 years of bull, mor elike 1987, rebound after this

on the board of 2 mining companies
a lot of exploration will not be carried out

earliest in 5 years, maybe 10 years
will be shortage of commodities

flooding monry will give s inflation sometime

as a trade could buy
corporate bond monkets slaughtered,

big trade will be US long term gment bonds
maybe in 1 year time
only one not to collapse

Asians - retrenchment greater than US

chinese economy a disaster
a supply bubble

not much better than the US economy


let markets do work, not gment interventions
all the bailouts will prolong the crisis
let market clear out

see how many reserves are left in China in 1 year time
not good at showing what to invest in, now most in US dollars T bills


THailand
image is destroyed
gment is totally incompetent

badly devided between aristocracy, and otehr faction


1) div Us higher than 10 year bonds
2) Sing, etc will haveto cut div significntly
3) div yields equity vs corp bonds
value in asian equities,

long term all asian markets good
all needs time to heal wounds