Posted 11:28 AM by Dil
CNBC 26 SEP

700 billion will not be enough
too much debt around the world


subsidees will have negative effects:
distort market pricing

transact
values within market

assests are prices where they should be

down 20% house prices, not the problem
too much money was lent at peak asset prices, leverage in the system
proposal does not address leverage problem

a friend suggested which would be cheaper
buy 1000000 homes and burn them down
economic nonsense solution, but as good as the treasury solution

Wall street will make a profit out of this
sell worseless assets at high prices, then buy them again at too low prices

who do you bail out
average household has not increased income
2001 - 2007; asset shufflers and mortage people, Wall St did best

74billion lost in stock prices
38 billion in bonuses last year from 5 brokerages
total joke
afetrwards go crying and say we need a bailout

PART2

houses still overvalued greatly in US, in real terms will come down
if US inflated then nominal terms maybe more stable?
fiscal manipulation markets be held up artificially

depends very much on the location
S Californai overbullt, not Detroit

Ireland, UK, Australia, Spain has big bubbles, yet to be deflated

problem is much larger in residential
construction boom everywhere
avoid real estate in financial centres

Singapore
REIT - down 50% from its high

underlying asset values, and structure of REITS


PART3

industrial commodities still vulnerable to falls

over next 5-10 years c will overperform

ease to below 800, gold will be more perceived as integrity of paper money is questioned

soft c better than hc, correction is underway

in fact will hardly make a difference to the man ion the street, may pay higher taxes


PART4

In Europe some of the banks are in a much worse situation
US bonds rising, more expensive for US
dollar will be supported

PART5

Thailand
not a nice economy, but just move along
in general THai companies are OK, noce yield

PART 6

rally could go to 1350 on plan, but wouldn't go in
bailout will be a failure at sime time
my est 50-70 dollars on SP
some Thai shares
globally shares still overvalued

Singopure REIT could be bought now
Thai beverage, div 5%, gonna sell beer


PART7
appoint Volcker, dismiss BErnanke and Paulson
B looks at depression of 29-31
conditions are very different now

leverage 30-1, everyone knew about that

PART8
China
earnings will massively disappoint in 2009
bottom around this level in next few years, then boom again
could rebound a bit

PART9
sumonkai share at same level as 1997
Singpure banks are good
Hingsang Bank, rocksolid bank
Bank of East Asia could have heavy exposure to property in China

Wamu is out of business, anoother nail in JPM, exposed to derivatives
gment given guarentees to JPM
shareprice wise may not go down much further, too big to fail

HK 1973.74 index 1700 - 150 fell in HK

will recession be inflationary, or do we have deflation
could have combo, properties down, consumer prices go up
don't know


US CNBC, ERIN
expect SP500 to bottom at 500

maybe drift lower
should be focussing on earnings disappoinyting for a long time
most economies in recession

2002-7 asset bubble extraordinary
managed to inflate everything

gold will be relatively good investment
until gment bans gold selling
not derivatives, physical gold

farmland will do well
farms quite good

fulfill daily needs in asia cos, good investment
cash might be endangered