Posted 4:14 PM by Dil
AIG would have large impact on markets.
Want to go back to $70.
Impaired

Vicious downward cycle. Assets continuously deteriorating.
Deleveraging central to this

Thailand still 50% down.
NASDAQ still 50% down.

Good that some brokers going out of business.
Houses owned with no equity, maybe 15% of house owners in US are in negative equity.

(Nuriel
cash and safe treasuries
MS and GS bought by foreign investors?)

Posted 3:26 PM by Dil
CNBC, 15 September 2008

Uncertain follow through downside.
Oversold at present time.
Temp bottom out mid OCtober, rise again, no higher levels.

Countrywide Financial rterrible buy.
Bad paper being bought worse paper.

Not paying enough attentian to the wider economic implications.


BLOOMBERG

Macro Lehman is favourable.
Shorter term, problem with more selling, credit contraction.
Market is becoming oversold.
air cleaned within next month.
By mid October start of another rally.

BoA buy is quite suspicious.


Wider problem, greater credit growth.
Private sector is deleveraging.
Fed cannot counter this trend.

Commodities and emerging markets oversold.
Economic slump in 1 year.
$60 earnings say in 2009, then 1200 not cheap.

Early 80s starting problems, not enough regulation.
Under Greenspan. Rest is patchwork now.