Posted 11:50 AM by Dil
2/4/2008 MARC FABER

can have 30% rallies in bear market
eg 1972-74
73 market rallied 20%

shouldn't be dogmatic
UBS bounces back to 40/50 from 30 afer from 80, OK
5% S&P500 earnings 1970s was financials
31% max just recently
now 20% could drop to 10%
GE Capital etc and and also Treasury Depts mixing in

IMO not come back toPrivate Banking, rip off clients in other ways

don't solve problems, postpone problems

next 3 months can get US outperformance

credit problems took 20 years to will take a long time to unwind
eg 1964-1982 no change in stock market

TIME BOMBS
Derivatives US
Construction loans US
Not Asian credit bubble but investment boom
If emerging economies go bad, would drag down other areas

Dubai 1977, big recession after

2005 Dubai Unbelievable - what will end the boom in the ME?Mining conference 5000 participants
All asset markets could be deflatedLike in the wartime setting, dual strand in what is going onsometimes one wins out, then the other

Pulic expanmding
Private market tightening

very difficult to make money in this environment
v high volatilitywill get hit somewhere
rather on the sidelinesVietnam, Africa,

In countryside reasonably prices for real estate
do well personally if dolalr strengthens
Vietnam real estate
agriculturale land NZ
biggest position in gold as a kind of counterbalance
gold will go down to 750/800
my hope is that dollar rebounds, supoportive of my positions