Posted 12:39 PM by Dil
5/3/2008 Bloomberg

Fed 1925-29
Money was far too easy

recjless lending 2001-4
IR far too low

core inflation - nogood what about food and oil

Treasury 10, 30 year is a disaster waiting to happen

some house bulders could still go bankrupt

EM more vilnerable at moment, 30-40%
china, Indai

US - printing money, downside more restricted

850 in 1980 was too high

1970-80
35 to 850

1973 - 73c pound

now 1t 14c a pound


only way to introduce discipline
let big bank fails

banks with largest derivatives exposure
most at risk (JPM ?? DYG)

structured der have exposed

in next 3-6 months