Posted 11:11 AM by Dil
Bloomberg 6/2/2009

stimulus plan a disaster

maybe better solution, nationalise let bond holders lose out
market based solution, give junk bonds to bond, shareholders

close, cosy relationship between gment and wall st
wall st large contributor to gdp and elections

2.5% to 3.6% 30 year bonds US

no free lunch, someone hasto pay
gment doesn't let that happen

massive tax cuts would be better, to private sector

continuous intervention by the gment whcuih has brought about the problems

itel, oracle,cisco will outperform gment bonds over the next 5 years

Posted 3:59 AM by Dil
19/1/2009 cnbc
2009 or 20010 dhoe to drop in gment bond market

Japan as in 1981
South Korea, Taiwan 1987

quality commodity stocks

high volatility
widespread belief deflation will continue

agonies postponed
better to let adjustment go as quickly as possible

against bailout packages

physical gold, mining , exploration

Posted 3:47 AM by Dil
29/12/2008 cnbc
precious metals, gold silver, plattinum, oil

if oil is at 25, will be terrible for world, -5-10 gdp for year

gold will outperform

2009 trade will be short treasuries

japan had v high savings
real estate, equities go into deflation
purchasing power j worker increased

US had net foreign assets
will lead to weaker dollar
against hard assets
industrial assets, close to 2001 lows

korea, 1988 level
japan cheap,
geopolitics difficult

BHP, Freeport,

Posted 2:03 PM by Dil
22 December 2008 Bloomberg

Catastrophic 2009

LTCM not bailed out in 1997, would have been better

Mexico go bankrupt in 1994

Bank savers do stupid things when they cont get decent returns in bank

Treasury Bond Bubble,
mayeb weak currencies

Nov 21 oversold
after rebound, will drift lower again

not compelling on PE, book, div

commodity prices are relatively low
Asian markets also quite low
SK, Japan 1981 values, can still go down somewhat more

chinese economy will sufffer badly

like gold
gold miners, exploration stocks
oil at around thsi level, fairly attractive,


RT, BHB
Newmont (?)

morenaccounting standards

Glass Siegel was removed
Greenspan always objected to regulastion

a lot of volatility 2009
what will dollar do in gold
disastrous currency

Posted 8:27 AM by Dil
1 december 2008

have had largest asset deflation ever

asset markets
since 2001
2002-2007, all assets go up, global economic boom
2008, all collpases apart from US dollar

not going back to 1500 soon on SP

huge fiscal stimulus
will lead to huge rally in asset prices

2009 economies will deteriorate very badly


when dollar starts to weaken, flowing again into asset prices

central banks never surprise
will let bubbles occur
will destroy the whole global financial system sooner or later

maybe go to 950/1000 SP
high volatility, +/- 20%

Ni eg oversold now, 10k from 50k

a lot of cyclical industries will be hit very badly

Warren Buffett approach has been dead for 10 years, will be for another 10 years

play in small amounts for investors


equities will not increase much for a long time

but Commodoties, not through a 25 years of bull, mor elike 1987, rebound after this

on the board of 2 mining companies
a lot of exploration will not be carried out

earliest in 5 years, maybe 10 years
will be shortage of commodities

flooding monry will give s inflation sometime

as a trade could buy
corporate bond monkets slaughtered,

big trade will be US long term gment bonds
maybe in 1 year time
only one not to collapse

Asians - retrenchment greater than US

chinese economy a disaster
a supply bubble

not much better than the US economy


let markets do work, not gment interventions
all the bailouts will prolong the crisis
let market clear out

see how many reserves are left in China in 1 year time
not good at showing what to invest in, now most in US dollars T bills


THailand
image is destroyed
gment is totally incompetent

badly devided between aristocracy, and otehr faction


1) div Us higher than 10 year bonds
2) Sing, etc will haveto cut div significntly
3) div yields equity vs corp bonds
value in asian equities,

long term all asian markets good
all needs time to heal wounds

Posted 11:28 AM by Dil
CNBC 26 SEP

700 billion will not be enough
too much debt around the world


subsidees will have negative effects:
distort market pricing

transact
values within market

assests are prices where they should be

down 20% house prices, not the problem
too much money was lent at peak asset prices, leverage in the system
proposal does not address leverage problem

a friend suggested which would be cheaper
buy 1000000 homes and burn them down
economic nonsense solution, but as good as the treasury solution

Wall street will make a profit out of this
sell worseless assets at high prices, then buy them again at too low prices

who do you bail out
average household has not increased income
2001 - 2007; asset shufflers and mortage people, Wall St did best

74billion lost in stock prices
38 billion in bonuses last year from 5 brokerages
total joke
afetrwards go crying and say we need a bailout

PART2

houses still overvalued greatly in US, in real terms will come down
if US inflated then nominal terms maybe more stable?
fiscal manipulation markets be held up artificially

depends very much on the location
S Californai overbullt, not Detroit

Ireland, UK, Australia, Spain has big bubbles, yet to be deflated

problem is much larger in residential
construction boom everywhere
avoid real estate in financial centres

Singapore
REIT - down 50% from its high

underlying asset values, and structure of REITS


PART3

industrial commodities still vulnerable to falls

over next 5-10 years c will overperform

ease to below 800, gold will be more perceived as integrity of paper money is questioned

soft c better than hc, correction is underway

in fact will hardly make a difference to the man ion the street, may pay higher taxes


PART4

In Europe some of the banks are in a much worse situation
US bonds rising, more expensive for US
dollar will be supported

PART5

Thailand
not a nice economy, but just move along
in general THai companies are OK, noce yield

PART 6

rally could go to 1350 on plan, but wouldn't go in
bailout will be a failure at sime time
my est 50-70 dollars on SP
some Thai shares
globally shares still overvalued

Singopure REIT could be bought now
Thai beverage, div 5%, gonna sell beer


PART7
appoint Volcker, dismiss BErnanke and Paulson
B looks at depression of 29-31
conditions are very different now

leverage 30-1, everyone knew about that

PART8
China
earnings will massively disappoint in 2009
bottom around this level in next few years, then boom again
could rebound a bit

PART9
sumonkai share at same level as 1997
Singpure banks are good
Hingsang Bank, rocksolid bank
Bank of East Asia could have heavy exposure to property in China

Wamu is out of business, anoother nail in JPM, exposed to derivatives
gment given guarentees to JPM
shareprice wise may not go down much further, too big to fail

HK 1973.74 index 1700 - 150 fell in HK

will recession be inflationary, or do we have deflation
could have combo, properties down, consumer prices go up
don't know


US CNBC, ERIN
expect SP500 to bottom at 500

maybe drift lower
should be focussing on earnings disappoinyting for a long time
most economies in recession

2002-7 asset bubble extraordinary
managed to inflate everything

gold will be relatively good investment
until gment bans gold selling
not derivatives, physical gold

farmland will do well
farms quite good

fulfill daily needs in asia cos, good investment
cash might be endangered

Posted 4:14 PM by Dil
AIG would have large impact on markets.
Want to go back to $70.
Impaired

Vicious downward cycle. Assets continuously deteriorating.
Deleveraging central to this

Thailand still 50% down.
NASDAQ still 50% down.

Good that some brokers going out of business.
Houses owned with no equity, maybe 15% of house owners in US are in negative equity.

(Nuriel
cash and safe treasuries
MS and GS bought by foreign investors?)

Posted 3:26 PM by Dil
CNBC, 15 September 2008

Uncertain follow through downside.
Oversold at present time.
Temp bottom out mid OCtober, rise again, no higher levels.

Countrywide Financial rterrible buy.
Bad paper being bought worse paper.

Not paying enough attentian to the wider economic implications.


BLOOMBERG

Macro Lehman is favourable.
Shorter term, problem with more selling, credit contraction.
Market is becoming oversold.
air cleaned within next month.
By mid October start of another rally.

BoA buy is quite suspicious.


Wider problem, greater credit growth.
Private sector is deleveraging.
Fed cannot counter this trend.

Commodities and emerging markets oversold.
Economic slump in 1 year.
$60 earnings say in 2009, then 1200 not cheap.

Early 80s starting problems, not enough regulation.
Under Greenspan. Rest is patchwork now.

Posted 2:52 PM by Dil
2 SEPTEMBER 2008 BLOOMBERG

Bangkok
confusing, democracy parties don't want whole democracy

King is stability, when dies that will be problem
economy not very dynamic in Thailand
very large food production

compared to a year ago all business is down

economic downturn means lower oil prices
investing money can mean going for poor quality, if low level

tightening of global liquidity
oil price further down 3-6 months

dollar strengthen further
producing centres / manufacturing centres particularly suffer

peaked out in commodity prices
1971-1980, 108 months, CRB 3.5 x up
1999-2008, 109 months 3.5 x up